Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 39.928073 47.280156 55.390807 64.972386 75.951052 88.105303 102.546105
2024-10-20 31.882099 42.335919 55.000777 71.337145 91.699367 116.080897 147.303925
2024-10-27 23.307658 34.042971 48.085020 67.513897 93.370740 126.234529 170.737135
2024-11-03 19.729195 31.129802 46.985327 70.163845 102.605404 145.739454 206.627697
2024-11-10 17.429819 29.420406 47.003487 73.936860 113.256691 167.516021 246.746185
2024-11-17 15.466750 27.783926 46.741580 77.028533 122.931661 188.377345 286.795816
2024-11-24 13.263797 25.345492 44.846593 77.299177 128.280524 203.248723 319.144070
2024-12-01 10.995054 22.377329 41.653578 75.063015 129.433561 211.830119 342.651472
2024-12-08 9.576268 20.639012 40.201826 75.355273 134.366281 226.169621 375.319490
2024-12-15 8.508027 19.355708 39.329781 76.441494 140.533649 242.640763 412.006185
2024-12-22 6.668588 16.228236 34.730608 70.535572 134.522700 239.398053 417.683042
2024-12-29 6.129683 15.665648 34.796890 72.906674 142.674110 259.314293 461.009563
2025-01-05 5.078756 13.923426 32.594824 71.329838 144.654172 270.634486 493.620917
2025-01-12 4.932294 14.233748 34.606425 78.116075 162.452788 310.159463 575.890915
2025-01-19 3.887088 12.143726 31.276168 73.969223 159.705994 314.195463 598.870940
2025-01-26 3.528147 11.692454 31.410853 76.834558 170.404056 342.454791 664.908447
2025-02-02 3.288173 11.501603 32.096806 80.913777 183.771926 376.312979 742.580895
2025-02-09 3.026767 11.185792 32.433688 84.254793 195.917158 408.652447 819.285216
2025-02-16 2.636878 10.385738 31.459924 84.547196 201.857704 429.794957 876.968106
2025-02-23 2.182222 9.246124 29.424773 82.130913 201.901092 439.714479 914.624597
2025-03-02 1.907504 8.614255 28.601882 82.446755 207.729489 461.052045 974.489148
2025-03-09 1.699603 8.152259 28.159616 83.620516 215.492387 486.597741 1043.524447
2025-03-16 1.288656 6.783203 24.877535 77.236425 205.815502 476.707853 1044.311760